Month: September 2005

WFU Week Four: Downward Spiral

After beating ECU for win number one in this soon to be written off season, the Deacs took on Maryland this afternoon in the Deacs’ Homecoming game. Not too many people came home if the crowd on TV, particularly early, was any indication. The Deacs lost a game that was only within reach because of Maryland mistakes 22-12.

Rather than rehash how bad we looked, how predictable our offense is and how we couldn’t throw the ball in the ocean from the shore, I think I’ll jump right to my conclusions:

1) Like everything in college sports, it comes down to recruiting. Some optimists at ACCBoards.Com love to bash recruiting rankings and claim such rankings are skewed and don’t matter. Here’s the only problem with that: it’s utterly and completely wrong. While rankings are certainly part art as well as part science, it has been empirically proven by the ACC Area Sports Journal on more than one occasion that the teams that get the higher ranked players will win more games than those that don’t. I’m not bashing our players by saying that- I am simply stating a fact.

2) The fact that WFU generally battles Duke for the lowest ranked recruiting classes in the ACC requires Jim Grobe to do things to compensate for the talent differential. At first, he was able to close that gap by running a lot of misdirection and orbit plays (I don’t know where that overused and never successful shovel pass came from- it was on almost as much as the commercial for that stupid golf movie). The problem is that other teams, especially the other ACC teams, have figured it out. The smoke and mirrors quit working and while the coordinators have not distinguished themselves this year, there’s only so much they can do. The way to win more games consistently over the medium and long term is to recruit players as good or better than most of the other teams you play. I don’t know if that’s possible at WFU, but trying to pretend it’s not necessary is a recipe for failure. You simply can’t count on sneaking up on people to get you to a bowl every year or five.

3) The talent differential also makes it easier for other coaches to implement halftime adjustments than for Grobe to do so. The second half trends this year bear that out. Grobe appears to be getting outcoached at halftime, but again there’s only so much he can do.

4) WFU does not have a single real threat at wide receiver. Part of the reason Ben (who ain’t jamin’) Mauk looks so bad out there (and he does look really bad out there) is because his receivers can’t get open. And even when they do and he actually throws the ball to them instead of tucking it for yet another QB keeper (if I were the running backs I wouldn’t even bother running on the option plays because Mauk never gives them the ball), they often drop it. If we had better receivers, Mauk would look less bad.

5) Now for the thing I’m the most certain about- the coaching staff does not have confidence in Mauk. They can say they do, but their game plans make it obvious they don’t. Grobe said earlier this year that Mauk does not have the green light to audible out of plays except in certain situations (which must mean that all the pointing and walking around pre-snap is some sort of head fake designed to fool any defensive players who didn’t read that interview). If that’s the case, then the play calling makes it abundantly clear that the staff views Mauk’s arm as the weapon of last resort. Whether this is because of him or them, I don’t know. But if this is so obvious to me, it’s also obvious to other coaches, which is exactly why other teams keep daring Wake to pass the ball.

This all adds up to a long season for the Deacs. I’m not sure if there is an answer, but if there is, someone on the WFU board at ACCBoards.Com will come up with it.

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Rita Update- Saturday 9:45 a.m.

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The wind blew very, very hard all night. We lost our biggest and most productive banana tree and a few smaller tree limbs, but otherwise everything is in tact. The hurricane has moved up to east Texas. We are still getting a lot of wind, but nothing like we had overnight. We had very little rain. Other than a few spikes, we never lost electricity.

Gas is going to be a problem for a while, so it will take some time for things to get back to normal. It will also take time for the million or so people who evacuated to get back home.

We’ll have some limbs to clean up, but as I have said so many times, we were very lucky.

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Rita Update- Saturday 12:10 a.m.

We are now within the outer bands of Hurricane Rita, though again we seem to have been spared the worst of it.

The wind is blowing very hard, at least by non-hurricane standards. It’s raining, but not all that hard. The eye of the hurricane has not reached the coastline, however, and the question now seems to be how fast and where the hurricane will begin to slow down after it reaches landfall.

As the eye reaches the coast we expect a lot more rain. So far our power has stayed on, but I have noticed a lot of spikes (4 since I started writing this post). That is a bad sign as far as keeping electricity goes, but maybe we’ll get lucky again.

I sound like a broken record, but we are so much better off than what we expected, and I am very thankful for that. I was extremely nervous when Raina and the girls couldn’t get to Fort Worth yesterday and came home. If someone had told me yesterday morning that we’d have only moderate rain and electricity right now, I would have laughed.

I am going to sit up for another hour or so, and then I’ll try to get some sleep. My prayers tonight will be prayers of thanks for our good fortune so far and prayers of concern for the people in the direct path of this storm.

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Friday's Link: Freshblog

The fact that I have the time to pick Friday’s Link tonight and electricity and an internet connection to post it speaks volumes to how kind Hurricane Rita has been to us so far.

Freshblog is one of my favorite blogs. It regularly provides good tips about creating and customizing blogs as well as good takes on technology in general. I have used several tips I read on Freshblog to improve the Newsome.Org pages, but you don’t need to have a blog to enjoy Freshblog. All it takes is a desire to learn about how people are using the internet to create and distribute content- blogs and otherwise.

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Rita Update- Friday 8:00 p.m.

It has started to rain, although not hard (yet). The wind comes in gusts, but nothing like we were expecting (so far). I don’t want to jinx us, but it seems like we may be spared the horrible storm we were expecting. I’m not ready to relax yet, but it is starting to feel a little better

The news indicates that the hurricane continues to move eastward towards Lousiana. In fact the weatherman on channel 13 just said that it’s possible the entire eye of the hurricane may land east of the Louisiana line. This is the same guy who usually tries to scare us to death, so if he’s saying that, it must be true.

We’re still expecting a severe storm, but with every passing hour, we become more hopeful that this will not be as bad as we expected.

Now, my take on the media and its “scare tactics.” First of all, most people will only hear the good news in a mixed news story. As a result, the media and the government leaders probably have to turn up the scare volume in order to get the message across. Having said that, I felt yesterday and last night that some of the newscasters and writers were going a bit overboard in their analysis.

In particular, I thought Eric Berger, who writes a blog for the Houston Chronicle that I generally enjoy, was at times a little over the top. Take this post, for example:

“Unless the storm turns south or north in the next 24 to 48 hours we are set up for a truly horrific event. I am not going to sugar-coast this, my friends. If the storm comes ashore as forecast, it would essentially be the worst-case scenario described here.”

Again, he has to tell it like he sees it, and as a blogger he has greater latitude to express his feelings and personal perspective (that’s what makes blogs an improved method of news delivery), but as someone who, at the time, was at home alone preparing to ride out a category 5 direct hit, I didn’t need any help being nervous.

Some folks are already being critical of the media, and I think a lot of the criticism is logically sound. But here’s my thing:

(a) There are never enough rules and models to plan for this sort of thing.

(b) As mentioned above, people need to be told very bad news to hear moderately bad news.

(c) People were, in general, doing the best they could. I especially thought Mayor White did a good job.

(d) In hindsight, everyone should have seen the evacuation traffic and gas problems as 100% inevitable. All of those people have to get back home via those same roads, so let’s not stop thinking about traffic and gas for a while.

(e) We have a culture of fear in this country that is propagated mainly by the media because the media believes, rightly or wrongly, that scary things bring higher ratings. Watch any newscast, even when there’s not a hurricane coming, and note how many scary stories there are. I believe this is a major problem in our country, but it has nothing to do with hurricanes.

We have been very lucky so far. That’s what matters the most, and we are thankful.

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Rita Update – Friday Afternoon

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Another deceptively pretty day (so far), but the clouds are starting to build and it’s getting windy.

Raina and the girls came back home, thinking that our house with supplies is better than a sofa in someone else’s house a mere 20 or so miles away. The other family that was travelling with Raina came back home too, and we will ride this thing out together. Even if the women and children wanted to try to leave today, the road and gas situation makes that impossible.

The nursing home where the bus that burned up originated is about a mile and a half from our house. My kids sing Christmas carols there every December. When I was walking back home after taking Raina’s car to higher ground I heard one of my neighbors telling her neighbor that someone they both knew was on the “survivor list.” As soon as the hurricane passes, the entire town of Bellaire will mourn for the people on that bus.

The news indicates that the hurricane appears to be headed for landfall east of here, which is much better for us (though obviously not for the folks over there) than here or west of here. All of that could change, but we hope now to be spared from the worst of this storm. My constant prayer is all of the evacuations and preparation will greatly reduce the damage about to be caused by this storm.

Tomorrow this time, we’ll know one way or the other.

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Rita Update

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Here’s the latest. A deceptively beautiful day today.

Raina and the girls gave up trying to get to Fort Worth. Can’t get there from here. They left at 6:00 a.m. and made about 15 miles in 6 hours. The group which includes all non-daddy members of another family diverted to a relative’s house in Spring. That’s not very far from here, but at least it’s in the right direction.

Home Depot was surreal this morning. The line for plywood (in the parking lot) was as least an eighth of a mile long. People were calm, but serious. The Home Depot employees deserve medals for being there and being so calm, efficient and friendly. Inside, there was stuff on the shelves, but no flashlights and no regular batteries. I picked up two rechargeable 18 volt batteries for my cordless flashlights and a car charger, that will let me charge those two and my three others in my truck.

Lucky Dog and I are set as far as food and water goes. I have moved the pool and yard stuff inside and I have taped some of the bigger windows. At least 3 of my neighbors are riding it out in their homes, so we can help each other as needed.

Now comes the weird part. Having done most of what I can do to get ready, I have more than 24 hours to finish a few things and chill. The news is far too scary to watch and I’ve just about done everything I can do from here work-wise (I’m not certain my blackberry is receiving my work email, so if I haven’t responded to you, that may be why), so I think I’m going to watch my latest Netflix delivery. I’m not sure what it is, but I’ll post a 20 second movie review later.

It’s eerie here, but it’s only beginning.

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Waiting for Rita

The press is doing its usual “scare tactics” routine, which makes it hard to know what the real story is about Rita and the likely effect on Houston. It’s a big one for sure and there may be serious wind and water. My girls have evacuated to Gigi and Papa’s house, but I’m here for the ride.

Tomorrow, I’ll move all of our pool and deck furniture into the garage, get some supplies ready and wait. There have been other hurricanes and tropical storms in the 20 years I’ve lived here, but this one seems to be the biggest and baddest yet.

My sense is that there will be a lot of rain and a lot of wind, and probably some fallen trees. If we get that or less, I’ll be glad I stayed behind to manage and begin repairing any damage. If we get more than that, I may be sorry I stayed. Time will tell.

I intend to post updates here as long as I have power, and maybe even a photo or two. Hurricanes are just part of the deal when you live here. It’s time to dig in and wait.

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A Songwriter’s Take on the RIAA

riaaIf we didn’t already have enough reasons to hate the RIAA, now it seems that priority-challenged organization is trying to get the FCC to impose copy-protection standards on digital radio. Could there be a more anti-consumer organization in the world? The most irritating thing is that this is an organization that claims to be protecting me.

As a songwriter with numerous songs on commercial records, I actually make a little money in performance royalties. Both I and Err Bear Music, my publishing company, are affiliated with BMI. BMI collects royalties (in this case royalties from radio stations, as opposed to royalties from record sales which are collected by a different agency) and distributes them to songwriters and publishing companies. Every quarter, BMI sends me a little money and a statement showing which of my songs are earning royalties. I’m all for royalties, I just don’t think pissing off the entire world is going to increase my royalties.

As people who make and sell music, we should be more consumer-friendly. Instead, the RIAA makes us look like greedy, paranoid luddites. People have been recording songs off the radio for decades. I did it when I was a kid. I didn’t turn into a song stealing music thief. What I did turn into is a music fan who has bought thousands of CDs, not to mention hundreds of LPs, 8-tracks and cassettes, many of which were bought again on CD.

Copy protection won’t stop a criminal from making copies of a CD any more than gun control will stop violence. It may be harder to copy songs with DRM restrictions, but it can, is and will be done. If someone wants to make and sell illegal copies of a CD, he or she is always going to be able to figure out how to do it- there will always be technology to defeat technology. Heck, I personally know of several album reissues that were done by “needle drop” (i.e., making a second generation master from an ordinary copy of an LP). The people who will be frustrated by these ridiculous limitations are the honest kids who would otherwise grow up to buy thousands of records, just like I did.

Fortunately the EFF is rising to the challenge of bashing the RIAA for this idiocy. The EFF’s comments make good and logical reading. Dwight Silverman reports that even Steve Jobs is calling the RIAA greedy. The more people that call out the RIAA on this sort of thing, the better chance reason has of prevailing.

The RIAA tries to act like it’s looking out for songwriters and performers, but the only group the RIAA is truly interested in is the record label cartel which thinks it can stuff the cat back in the bag and bring people back to the record stores to buy CDs for $15 that cost a dollar or less to produce. That, my friends, is the real agenda. It’s not about my rights or those of any other songwriter or performer.

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